A spring in our step...

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If history decides that the start of this economic downturn was marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it should also recognise that the end came during the last thirty seconds of London’s 2014 New Year’s Eve firework display.  If you saw it you’ll know what I’m talking about.   If you didn’t, you really should find it on YouTube.  It was as though Boris still had another fifteen minutes of pyrotechnics up his sleeve, then someone shouted… ‘Stuff it!  All of them… just do all of them!’  It was just one mighty bang.  It felt to me like it was the last lightning bolt of the storm.  As though London was announcing to the world that it was back… and it meant business!
I joined Kuoni in March 2009 just as the full impact of the banking crisis was beginning to hit home.  For the first time on record the number of people flying in and out of the UK went into decline as the collective belt was tightened.  House prices slumped and consumer confidence, the thing that more than anything else drives the economy forward, dried up.  New car sales ground to a halt; Aldi and Lidl suddenly became the supermarkets of choice; and home-building all but stopped.
For a couple of years as well, people stopped taking as many holidays, but then an interesting thing happened: Consumers began to realise that this downturn wasn’t ending any time soon; in fact it looked like it was going to last for some time.  And how did they react?  Well, if they could afford it, they took a holiday!
The holiday, once the luxury item at the bottom of the list of priorities, was now an essential.  Two years of abstention was enough.  The car could wait; the new sofa could wait; the extension could wait; but the holiday was going back on the list!
So as we enter 2014 with a spring in our step and confidence returning, one small black cloud lingers on the horizon.  Our customers have made sacrifices during the course of the last few years and as the economy recovers they will start to replace those worn out cars and sofas, to move house and to build extensions.  For the short term at least, the holiday might have to take a back seat. It would be sensible to expect a lag between a return in consumer confidence and an upturn in holiday bookings.
I predict an interesting year ahead.  It won’t be the walk in the park that some are anticipating – there is still a long way to go before we can really claim to be out of the woods – but the last five years have been a tough training ground.  Only the fittest have survived and they will emerge stronger, ready to take on the challenges that lie ahead. 

2014 came in with an almighty bang.  Confidence is back.  It’s time to dust yourselves off and rise to the challenge.  I wish you all every success.

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